You should pay attention to these figures to know if stricter measures are to be taken. Are there any bright spots yet?


A patient in the cohort ward of the Catharina Hospital in Eindhoven.Image ANP

Is the number of infections increasing faster?

Conclusion: Growth rate appears to be accelerating

The number of infections detected is by far the most important measure for assessing the potency of the virus. Due to the considerable time between infection and possibly becoming seriously ill, the figures for hospital admissions are not suitable. Just like the death rates, they are chasing the virus. The number of hospital admissions and deaths is therefore likely to increase further in the coming weeks.

Looking at the daily number of infections does not make much sense. As the virus spreads, the current high numbers will sometimes add thousands of infections per day. It is therefore better to look at the weekly growth percentage to signal a break in the trend. The number of infections on a weekly basis has been increasing by about 40 percent for about ten days, but the last few days seems to have accelerated. Due to the 5,822 infections on Thursday, the weekly percentage has even increased to more than 50 percent. RIVM also looks at the percentage of tests that are positive. ‘The combination of increasing percentages and increasing numbers is an indication that more covid-19 actually occurs. Unfortunately, that is what we have seen in recent weeks, ‘says Susan van den Hof, head of the RIVM’s epidemiological studies department.